Wealth tax experiments: capital flight and unintended consequencesStevenson’s vision of soaking the richest tier of society must contend with real-world case studies. Around the world,
several countries have tried wealth taxes or similar measures on the rich, often with disappointing results. These examples illustrate how well-intended populist tax policies can lead to
capital flight, reduced innovation, or simply far lower tax receipts than expected:
- France: France’s solidarity wealth tax (ISF) stands as a cautionary tale. Imposed in the 1980s, it led to an exodus of wealthy residents over the years. An estimated 42,000 millionaires left France between 2000 and 2012 in part to avoid the wealth tax. High-profile departures – from actor Gérard Depardieu to business owners – became routine. The flight of capital and talent got so severe that by 2017 France abolished the broad wealth tax (replacing it with a narrower tax on real estate only). The government acknowledged that the tax had driven away investors and cost more in lost economic activity than it generated in revenue. One French Prime Minister estimated 10,000 people with €35 billion in assets left France in 15 years due to wealth taxes. French economists calculated that the wealth tax was raising about €3.5 billion a year, but causing an annual revenue loss of around €7 billion due to its wider economic effects. In short, France “tried soaking the rich. It didn’t go well,” as one Bloomberg piece put it. This underscores how a policy aligned with Stevenson’s ideas played out in practice: the richest simply packed up and moved, and France ended up scrapping the policy.
- Sweden: Sweden once had a wealth tax, but it was repealed in 2007 after decades of problems. The Swedish wealth tax prompted large outflows of capital and the expatriation of well-known business people, such as IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad who moved to Switzerland. The tax became nearly voluntary – savvy wealthy Swedes could “with impunity evade the tax by taking appropriate measures,” including increasing their debt or shifting assets into exempt categories. In the end, the wealth tax contributed so little to Sweden’s budget (around 0.2% of GDP) yet threatened the country’s status as a hub for entrepreneurs and investors, that lawmakers decided it was not worth keeping. Abolishing it was bipartisan; even social democrats conceded that the tax had backfired by driving innovation and capital offshore. Today Sweden funds its generous welfare state through other taxes (like high income and consumption taxes), but no longer taxes net wealth – a telling outcome for the argument that wealth taxes are a panacea.
- Norway: Even modest increases in wealth taxes can trigger outsized responses. In Norway, which still levies an annual wealth tax, the center-left government raised the rate slightly (to 1.1% for the largest fortunes) in 2022. The result was a record wave of wealthy Norwegians leaving the country. More than 30 billionaires and multi-millionaires emigrated in 2022 alone – a number greater than the previous 13 years combined. Many headed to low-tax Switzerland. This sudden rich exodus “came as a shock” to Norwegians and is expected to cost the government tens of millions in lost tax receipts annually. Notably, one of those who left was Norway’s fourth-richest man, who had been the country’s single largest taxpayer; his departure deprives the state of an estimated 175 million NOK (£13 million) each year. The Norwegian case demonstrates how sensitive the wealthy are to tax changes – even a small hike prompted a big reaction. It also shows that the rich contribute to the public finances in multiple ways (through various taxes on their income, investments, businesses, etc.), all of which can be lost if they relocate. This example aligns with Laffer Curve logic: push the rate too far, and the tax base melts away.
Other countries echo similar themes. Germany’s wealth tax was struck down in the 1990s (partly for taxing some assets and not others), and political appetite to revive it remains low. The
UK flirted with a wealth tax in the 1970s and again more recently, but shelved the idea in favor of more targeted measures – cognizant that London’s status as a financial capital could be jeopardised if the super-rich fled en masse. Even the
United States, despite frequent discussions of “Ultra-Millionaire Taxes,” has so far held back, with policymakers pointing to Europe’s reversals as a warning.
The takeaway from these global experiments is that
implementation matters enormously. A heavy wealth tax in theory might raise revenue to fund social programs; in practice it often meets evasive action. Stevenson tends to downplay these practical challenges in his populist messaging. But a policy that causes a net outflow of wealth or drives top innovators out of the country could end up
hurting the very people it’s meant to help (through a weaker economy or lower tax resources for public services). Wealth taxes also tend to be complex to enforce – requiring valuations of illiquid assets and global cooperation to track wealth hidden abroad. These are not insurmountable issues, but history shows they are serious obstacles. Any proposal to “make the rich pay” must reckon with the fact that the rich may simply pay
by leaving. Stevenson’s public addresses seldom grapple with these messy realities; they remain crucial considerations for any policymaker.