Keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle
13th November 2026
If you own shares through a fund, the right thing to do after the last week or so is nothing. The S&P 500, the main US share index and the biggest part of most global funds, fell 4.36% on 5 November and was back within touching distance a week later, and on Thursday Nvidia lost the man who'd run it since 1993. Look at 2026 as a whole and it's been a calmer year than most since 1990, and the history of founders leaving and of fear spikes gives you no reason to jump off now.
What the ride looked like
On Thursday 5 November the S&P 500 fell 4.36%. The VIX, the index Wall Street calls its fear gauge, closed at 28.18. It's worked out from the prices traders pay for options, which are contracts that pay out if the index moves, and it shows how much movement the market expects over the next 30 days. Its average since 1990 is about 19.4, so that was a properly nervous day.
At that close the index was about 6% below its record from 6 October. Then it turned. The S&P rose 2.35% the following Monday and another 1.3% on Wednesday, and by Thursday night the VIX was down to 18.70, just under its long-run average. Switch your phone off on 4 November, switch it back on last night, and you'd find the index a little over 1% lower and wonder what you'd missed.
A calmer year than it feels
2026 has been a quiet year for US shares. There have been 49 days this year when the S&P 500 closed at least 1% higher or lower than the day before. From 1990 to 2025 the average was about 64 in a full year. Days with a 2% move have happened six times, where an average year has about 17. There are seven weeks of trading left, and it would take a very rough end to the year to make 2026 a bumpy one.
This year's biggest drop from a high was about 9.1%, at the end of March, and the index is still up about 10.9% since January. Since 1990 the typical year has had a fall of about 14% somewhere along the way, yet the index finished higher in 26 of those 36 years. A 6% dip over a few weeks is part of the deal when you own shares.
On Thursday 5 November the S&P 500 fell 4.36%. The VIX, the index Wall Street calls its fear gauge, closed at 28.18. It's worked out from the prices traders pay for options, which are contracts that pay out if the index moves, and it shows how much movement the market expects over the next 30 days. Its average since 1990 is about 19.4, so that was a properly nervous day.
At that close the index was about 6% below its record from 6 October. Then it turned. The S&P rose 2.35% the following Monday and another 1.3% on Wednesday, and by Thursday night the VIX was down to 18.70, just under its long-run average. Switch your phone off on 4 November, switch it back on last night, and you'd find the index a little over 1% lower and wonder what you'd missed.
A calmer year than it feels
2026 has been a quiet year for US shares. There have been 49 days this year when the S&P 500 closed at least 1% higher or lower than the day before. From 1990 to 2025 the average was about 64 in a full year. Days with a 2% move have happened six times, where an average year has about 17. There are seven weeks of trading left, and it would take a very rough end to the year to make 2026 a bumpy one.
This year's biggest drop from a high was about 9.1%, at the end of March, and the index is still up about 10.9% since January. Since 1990 the typical year has had a fall of about 14% somewhere along the way, yet the index finished higher in 26 of those 36 years. A 6% dip over a few weeks is part of the deal when you own shares.
The day Nvidia lost its founder
Jensen Huang co-founded Nvidia in 1993 and ran it for 33 years, building it into one of the most valuable companies in the world. On Sunday the board opened an investigation into reports that he'd been targeted by a foreign intelligence service, and said it had confidence in him. By Thursday he'd resigned, and the board was left running a company that had been built around one man.
The shares opened about 13% lower. By the close they'd clawed most of that back and finished down 4.34%. Sell at the opening price and you got about 9% less for your shares than someone who sat on their hands until the end of the day. Meanwhile AMD rose 5.86% and Broadcom 5.55%, as traders bet that Nvidia's customers would spread their orders around. A global index fund owns all three, along with thousands of other companies.
Founders have left before
Steve Jobs resigned as Apple's chief executive on 24 August 2011. Apple's shares fell 0.65% the next day. Over the following ten years, with dividends reinvested, they returned about 1,200%, against 367% for the S&P 500.
Bill Gates handed the chief executive's job at Microsoft to Steve Ballmer on 13 January 2000. Ten years later Microsoft's shares, with dividends, were down about 31%, while the S&P 500 was down about 5%. The dot-com crash started weeks after he stepped back, which explains a lot of that, and after March 2000 the share price didn't close above its level on the day he went until October 2015.
On the day each founder left, both companies were giants with a product nearly everyone used. One went on to return about 1,200% in a decade and the other took 15 years to get its share price back. An index fund owned both.
What the fear gauge has said before
Since 1990 the VIX has closed at 28 or higher on about one trading day in ten. Those are the days when selling feels most sensible.
Over the 12 months after those days, the S&P 500 with dividends rose by about 21.7% on average and was higher about 85% of the time. Across all trading days the average was about 12.4%, and higher about 83% of the time. That's about nine points a year better than average.
Those averages hide some big exceptions. About one in five of those high-fear days came between September 2008 and June 2009, and anyone buying in the autumn of 2008 sat through months of further falls. A high VIX won't tell you when the bottom arrives, and by the time it's up, prices have usually fallen already, so selling then means selling cheap.
Jensen Huang co-founded Nvidia in 1993 and ran it for 33 years, building it into one of the most valuable companies in the world. On Sunday the board opened an investigation into reports that he'd been targeted by a foreign intelligence service, and said it had confidence in him. By Thursday he'd resigned, and the board was left running a company that had been built around one man.
The shares opened about 13% lower. By the close they'd clawed most of that back and finished down 4.34%. Sell at the opening price and you got about 9% less for your shares than someone who sat on their hands until the end of the day. Meanwhile AMD rose 5.86% and Broadcom 5.55%, as traders bet that Nvidia's customers would spread their orders around. A global index fund owns all three, along with thousands of other companies.
Founders have left before
Steve Jobs resigned as Apple's chief executive on 24 August 2011. Apple's shares fell 0.65% the next day. Over the following ten years, with dividends reinvested, they returned about 1,200%, against 367% for the S&P 500.
Bill Gates handed the chief executive's job at Microsoft to Steve Ballmer on 13 January 2000. Ten years later Microsoft's shares, with dividends, were down about 31%, while the S&P 500 was down about 5%. The dot-com crash started weeks after he stepped back, which explains a lot of that, and after March 2000 the share price didn't close above its level on the day he went until October 2015.
On the day each founder left, both companies were giants with a product nearly everyone used. One went on to return about 1,200% in a decade and the other took 15 years to get its share price back. An index fund owned both.
What the fear gauge has said before
Since 1990 the VIX has closed at 28 or higher on about one trading day in ten. Those are the days when selling feels most sensible.
Over the 12 months after those days, the S&P 500 with dividends rose by about 21.7% on average and was higher about 85% of the time. Across all trading days the average was about 12.4%, and higher about 83% of the time. That's about nine points a year better than average.
Those averages hide some big exceptions. About one in five of those high-fear days came between September 2008 and June 2009, and anyone buying in the autumn of 2008 sat through months of further falls. A high VIX won't tell you when the bottom arrives, and by the time it's up, prices have usually fallen already, so selling then means selling cheap.
One more metaphor. Why not?
Why our clients can stay in their seats
Every Brigantia plan starts from a cashflow model that runs to age 100. Money a client will need in roughly the next five years goes into cash, short-dated government bonds and other holdings that barely move with the stock market. We usually keep 18 to 36 months of withdrawals in cash. If you draw the equivalent of £4,000 a month, that's somewhere between £72,000 and £144,000 you can reach without selling a single share.
We hold that cash reserve in the currency you'll spend. A retiree in Bangkok paying bills in baht doesn't want next year's living costs held in dollars, because a currency swing can do as much damage to a spending pot as a market fall.
Shares are for money that won't be touched for at least five years. We also keep an eye on whether a portfolio has drifted too far from its target mix. Rebalancing after a big fall means moving a little money from the safer side into shares, which buys them while they're cheaper without anyone having to guess the bottom. Six trading days that ended close to where they started won't have moved many portfolios far enough to need it this time.
When you should get off the ride
There are good reasons to change a plan, and they come from your own life. For expats the usual ones are a contract ending, a move to another country that changes the currency you'll spend in and how your investments are taxed, retirement arriving sooner than planned, or a big bill on the way such as school fees.
Any of those can change how much you need in cash and how much can stay in shares, and any of them is worth a call.
If you've got money in shares that you'll need in the next five years, or you're not sure how much of your money is set up to sit through a week like this one, talk to us.
You can book an initial call below.
Every Brigantia plan starts from a cashflow model that runs to age 100. Money a client will need in roughly the next five years goes into cash, short-dated government bonds and other holdings that barely move with the stock market. We usually keep 18 to 36 months of withdrawals in cash. If you draw the equivalent of £4,000 a month, that's somewhere between £72,000 and £144,000 you can reach without selling a single share.
We hold that cash reserve in the currency you'll spend. A retiree in Bangkok paying bills in baht doesn't want next year's living costs held in dollars, because a currency swing can do as much damage to a spending pot as a market fall.
Shares are for money that won't be touched for at least five years. We also keep an eye on whether a portfolio has drifted too far from its target mix. Rebalancing after a big fall means moving a little money from the safer side into shares, which buys them while they're cheaper without anyone having to guess the bottom. Six trading days that ended close to where they started won't have moved many portfolios far enough to need it this time.
When you should get off the ride
There are good reasons to change a plan, and they come from your own life. For expats the usual ones are a contract ending, a move to another country that changes the currency you'll spend in and how your investments are taxed, retirement arriving sooner than planned, or a big bill on the way such as school fees.
Any of those can change how much you need in cash and how much can stay in shares, and any of them is worth a call.
If you've got money in shares that you'll need in the next five years, or you're not sure how much of your money is set up to sit through a week like this one, talk to us.
You can book an initial call below.
