Why the odds are so poor
Taken together, active investors own the part of the market that index funds do not, so before costs the average actively managed pound earns roughly the market’s return. After charges and dealing costs, it has to trail the average index-fund pound by roughly the difference in what each costs to run. Index funds are far cheaper, so they start every year ahead.
Charges go a long way to explaining the outcome. Among Europe-based active equity funds, those in the cheapest fifth were more than four times as likely to beat their passive rivals over ten years as those in the most expensive fifth.
Where active funds earn a place
The odds vary by asset class. Active bond funds based in Europe beat their passive rivals over ten years 33.5% of the time, nearly three times the success rate of equity funds. Morningstar’s US study, published in August, found similar patterns: active funds did best in bonds, property and emerging market shares, and worst in large US growth companies, where only 5% succeeded over ten years. These are areas where prices are less efficient, trading is expensive, or the index has awkward rules. A standard bond index, for example, gives the biggest weights to the biggest borrowers.
Our active allocation goes into areas like these. Some funds are diversifiers, which means they are chosen to behave differently from the main stock market indices and to hold up when those indices fall. Others are growth funds in markets where the data gives a skilled manager a better chance. Every active fund we hold has to justify its extra cost against the index fund it replaces, and if it stops doing so, we replace it.
What index funds do not solve
An index fund copies its index, weaknesses included. A fund that tracks the S&P 500, the main US share index, now puts a large share of its money into a handful of very large technology companies. Choosing which indices to hold, and how much of each, is where most of the investment decisions in a passive portfolio are made, and it needs as much care as picking active funds ever did.
Why some advisers prefer complicated portfolios
In our view, part of the reason is insecurity. A long list of funds run by star managers makes an adviser look busy and makes the fee easier to justify, while a handful of index funds looks like something a client could have set up alone. An adviser who lacks confidence in the rest of their service leans on fund selection, because it is the most visible part of the job and the hardest for a client to judge.
The work that changes clients’ finances most is planning. For many of our clients that means sorting out tax residency, deciding what to do with UK pensions left behind, planning for inheritance tax, matching currency to future spending, putting the right protection in place and modelling whether the money lasts to age 100. It also means keeping clients invested when markets fall, which is when investors tend to do the most damage to their own returns. Done with the care it needs, that work moves a client’s outcome further than fund selection does.