Looking ahead to 2026: what the world’s biggest investment houses are saying, and what really matters for long-term investors
12th December 2025
Every December, the major institutions release their investment outlooks for the year ahead. They arrive with glossy charts, confident predictions and carefully worded narratives about where markets may move next. This year is no different. Brooks Macdonald, Coutts, Goldman Sachs, Invesco, Morgan Stanley and several others have all published their 2026 views, each attempting to make sense of a world that remains economically resilient but politically turbulent.
Yet before considering what these firms expect for the year ahead, we should take a moment to reflect on their expectations for 2025. Many of the same institutions made firm calls on inflation, interest rates, global growth, sector leadership and currency trajectories. Most of those calls were wrong.
That is not a criticism of any particular firm but a reminder of a fundamental truth: short-term forecasting is extraordinarily difficult. Markets continue to move in ways that economists and strategists struggle to anticipate, and 2025 was another year that rewarded investors who stayed disciplined rather than reactive. As we examine the 2026 outlooks, this context matters far more than any one set of predictions.
Now - let's gaze into the crystal ball!
What the world’s largest institutions expect in 2026
Despite the challenges of the past year, a broad theme has emerged across the 2026 reports: cautious optimism. Growth remains uneven but resilient. Inflation is easing, albeit at a slower pace than many expected. Interest rate cuts are beginning, though not yet uniformly across regions. Corporate earnings remain healthy in most major markets. And above all, the global economy continues to absorb shocks (tariffs, political upheaval, and persistent geopolitical conflict) far better than forecasters once assumed.
There are differences in emphasis. Some institutions expect the United States to continue outperforming its peers, driven by robust consumer demand, strong balance sheets and the ongoing wave of AI investment. Others believe that leadership may broaden in favour of non-US markets, particularly cyclical sectors that lagged the narrow mega-cap rally of recent years. Several outlooks suggest that government bonds may perform well early in 2026 as rate cuts emerge, before giving way to weaker returns later in the year as monetary policy normalises.
But beneath these nuances lies a consistent message: the environment is constructive, not euphoric; resilient, not risk-free.
That is not a criticism of any particular firm but a reminder of a fundamental truth: short-term forecasting is extraordinarily difficult. Markets continue to move in ways that economists and strategists struggle to anticipate, and 2025 was another year that rewarded investors who stayed disciplined rather than reactive. As we examine the 2026 outlooks, this context matters far more than any one set of predictions.
Now - let's gaze into the crystal ball!
What the world’s largest institutions expect in 2026
Despite the challenges of the past year, a broad theme has emerged across the 2026 reports: cautious optimism. Growth remains uneven but resilient. Inflation is easing, albeit at a slower pace than many expected. Interest rate cuts are beginning, though not yet uniformly across regions. Corporate earnings remain healthy in most major markets. And above all, the global economy continues to absorb shocks (tariffs, political upheaval, and persistent geopolitical conflict) far better than forecasters once assumed.
There are differences in emphasis. Some institutions expect the United States to continue outperforming its peers, driven by robust consumer demand, strong balance sheets and the ongoing wave of AI investment. Others believe that leadership may broaden in favour of non-US markets, particularly cyclical sectors that lagged the narrow mega-cap rally of recent years. Several outlooks suggest that government bonds may perform well early in 2026 as rate cuts emerge, before giving way to weaker returns later in the year as monetary policy normalises.
But beneath these nuances lies a consistent message: the environment is constructive, not euphoric; resilient, not risk-free.
The structural theme no outlook can ignore
Across all major institutions, artificial intelligence remains the defining global economic force. Whether framed as a growth engine, a driver of productivity, or a catalyst for capital expenditure, AI is seen as central to the next decade of economic development. The optimism is supported by data. Corporate earnings in AI-exposed sectors remain strong, investment continues to accelerate, and adoption is still at an early stage in many industries.
At the same time, a few firms raise important caveats. Some suggest the valuation premium in the largest AI names is stretched and warrants rebalancing. Others highlight the volatility associated with major technological transitions, including labour displacement and the uneven pace of adoption across regions and industries.
Both perspectives can be true. The long-term opportunity is extraordinary, but it will not follow a straight line. And short-term predictions around AI, in either direction, are unlikely to be reliable. What matters is positioning portfolios to benefit from structural change without relying on the precision of timing.
The real lesson from 2025: predictions aren’t a strategy
If there is one thing we take away from the past year, it is the futility of overconfidence in short-term forecasts. Many institutions entered 2025 expecting slower growth, stubborn inflation and a more defensive backdrop for markets. Instead, equity indices reached record highs, corporate earnings remained robust, and markets shrugged off a series of geopolitical shocks that would previously have derailed economic momentum.
This disconnect highlights the danger of treating annual outlooks as a roadmap. They are useful context, not instructions. Even the most sophisticated forecasting models cannot account for the complexity of real-world behaviour, policy intervention, corporate adaptation and investor psychology. Markets routinely surprise both optimists and pessimists.
For investors, the only rational response is to avoid building strategies around what may or may not happen within the next twelve months. A single calendar year is not an investment horizon. Long-term outcomes are shaped by discipline, diversification, sensible risk management and a structured financial plan, not by guessing whether the S&P 500 will finish next year higher or lower.
Across all major institutions, artificial intelligence remains the defining global economic force. Whether framed as a growth engine, a driver of productivity, or a catalyst for capital expenditure, AI is seen as central to the next decade of economic development. The optimism is supported by data. Corporate earnings in AI-exposed sectors remain strong, investment continues to accelerate, and adoption is still at an early stage in many industries.
At the same time, a few firms raise important caveats. Some suggest the valuation premium in the largest AI names is stretched and warrants rebalancing. Others highlight the volatility associated with major technological transitions, including labour displacement and the uneven pace of adoption across regions and industries.
Both perspectives can be true. The long-term opportunity is extraordinary, but it will not follow a straight line. And short-term predictions around AI, in either direction, are unlikely to be reliable. What matters is positioning portfolios to benefit from structural change without relying on the precision of timing.
The real lesson from 2025: predictions aren’t a strategy
If there is one thing we take away from the past year, it is the futility of overconfidence in short-term forecasts. Many institutions entered 2025 expecting slower growth, stubborn inflation and a more defensive backdrop for markets. Instead, equity indices reached record highs, corporate earnings remained robust, and markets shrugged off a series of geopolitical shocks that would previously have derailed economic momentum.
This disconnect highlights the danger of treating annual outlooks as a roadmap. They are useful context, not instructions. Even the most sophisticated forecasting models cannot account for the complexity of real-world behaviour, policy intervention, corporate adaptation and investor psychology. Markets routinely surprise both optimists and pessimists.
For investors, the only rational response is to avoid building strategies around what may or may not happen within the next twelve months. A single calendar year is not an investment horizon. Long-term outcomes are shaped by discipline, diversification, sensible risk management and a structured financial plan, not by guessing whether the S&P 500 will finish next year higher or lower.
How Brigantia approaches the year ahead
While we pay attention to the views of the world’s major investment houses, we do not reposition portfolios based on them. Our philosophy remains unchanged. A robust financial plan is built on long-term principles, not short-term predictions.
We maintain globally diversified portfolios designed to capture broad market returns wherever they arise. We prefer low-cost core funds as the foundation of an investment strategy, ensuring that fees do not erode long-term growth. We rebalance regularly, especially when one sector, like AI-driven US mega-caps, runs ahead of others. This redistributes gains, manages risk and provides a smoothing effect when markets inevitably correct.
Cashflow modelling remains central to our approach. Rather than asking “What will markets do next year?”, we ask, “What rate of return is required to achieve your goals?”, “What happens if markets fall?”, “What if inflation rises?”, “What if returns are lower for longer?” Through this process we quantify risk, model outcomes and ensure the plan remains resilient under different market conditions.
That is where real financial planning happens. It is not about predicting the future but preparing for it.
A final thought as 2026 approaches
Every major institution has produced a carefully argued, data-rich vision for the year ahead. Some will be directionally right. Many will be wrong. All will be revised as events unfold.
What will not change is the core reality of long-term investing: markets reward patience, discipline and resilience. They penalise reaction, speculation and short-term thinking. The most important decisions you make as an investor rarely depend on what will happen in the next twelve months.
At Brigantia, our focus remains exactly where it should be: on designing plans and portfolios that stand the test of time, that absorb surprises rather than rely on predictions, and that create long-term financial security for our clients, whatever 2026 may bring.
While we pay attention to the views of the world’s major investment houses, we do not reposition portfolios based on them. Our philosophy remains unchanged. A robust financial plan is built on long-term principles, not short-term predictions.
We maintain globally diversified portfolios designed to capture broad market returns wherever they arise. We prefer low-cost core funds as the foundation of an investment strategy, ensuring that fees do not erode long-term growth. We rebalance regularly, especially when one sector, like AI-driven US mega-caps, runs ahead of others. This redistributes gains, manages risk and provides a smoothing effect when markets inevitably correct.
Cashflow modelling remains central to our approach. Rather than asking “What will markets do next year?”, we ask, “What rate of return is required to achieve your goals?”, “What happens if markets fall?”, “What if inflation rises?”, “What if returns are lower for longer?” Through this process we quantify risk, model outcomes and ensure the plan remains resilient under different market conditions.
That is where real financial planning happens. It is not about predicting the future but preparing for it.
A final thought as 2026 approaches
Every major institution has produced a carefully argued, data-rich vision for the year ahead. Some will be directionally right. Many will be wrong. All will be revised as events unfold.
What will not change is the core reality of long-term investing: markets reward patience, discipline and resilience. They penalise reaction, speculation and short-term thinking. The most important decisions you make as an investor rarely depend on what will happen in the next twelve months.
At Brigantia, our focus remains exactly where it should be: on designing plans and portfolios that stand the test of time, that absorb surprises rather than rely on predictions, and that create long-term financial security for our clients, whatever 2026 may bring.
