Why relying on forecasts has been a poor strategy this year
5th December 2025
This is the first of our final two Brigantia blogs of 2025. As we approach the end of the year, we are taking a measured look back at what actually happened in markets, rather than what people expected to happen. Next week, we will look ahead to 2026 and consider how investors can position themselves for a world that continues to move faster than the forecasters.
This year has given investors a timely reminder that prediction-driven strategies simply do not work. The gap between what commentators said would happen and what actually unfolded has been as wide as it has been frequent. Markets have lurched between optimism and anxiety, and if you relied on expert forecasts to guide your decisions, you were probably pulled back and forth just as quickly.
Regular readers will know that we have a favourite doom-and-gloomer here at Brigantia HQ. Michael Burry has published a steady stream of warnings throughout 2025. He does this most years of course. None of his predictions materialised again this time, but one day he will be right, and when that day comes we are sure he will let the world know so they can make another film about him. Dramatic narratives get attention. Accuracy is optional.
Forecasters across the board struggled this year. It felt as if sentiment flipped every couple of weeks. One moment markets were apparently facing an imminent downturn. The next moment the discussion was about the strength of the consumer and the resilience of corporate earnings. Soon after that, the conversation swung back to concerns about overheating or geopolitical risk. Analysts reacted to data rather than predicting it, yet often spoke with absolute confidence each time. It created a sense of whiplash for anyone trying to follow the commentary.
Rate expectations were a particular source of confusion. Throughout the year, markets repeatedly priced in interest rate cuts across the US, UK, and Europe, only to unwind those expectations weeks later when inflation prints or central bank statements failed to validate them. At other points, markets anticipated a longer hold period. None of these views stayed in place for long. Investors who positioned themselves around those forecasts found that they were adjusting their expectations almost monthly.
Regular readers will know that we have a favourite doom-and-gloomer here at Brigantia HQ. Michael Burry has published a steady stream of warnings throughout 2025. He does this most years of course. None of his predictions materialised again this time, but one day he will be right, and when that day comes we are sure he will let the world know so they can make another film about him. Dramatic narratives get attention. Accuracy is optional.
Forecasters across the board struggled this year. It felt as if sentiment flipped every couple of weeks. One moment markets were apparently facing an imminent downturn. The next moment the discussion was about the strength of the consumer and the resilience of corporate earnings. Soon after that, the conversation swung back to concerns about overheating or geopolitical risk. Analysts reacted to data rather than predicting it, yet often spoke with absolute confidence each time. It created a sense of whiplash for anyone trying to follow the commentary.
Rate expectations were a particular source of confusion. Throughout the year, markets repeatedly priced in interest rate cuts across the US, UK, and Europe, only to unwind those expectations weeks later when inflation prints or central bank statements failed to validate them. At other points, markets anticipated a longer hold period. None of these views stayed in place for long. Investors who positioned themselves around those forecasts found that they were adjusting their expectations almost monthly.
Asset behaviour also surprised even the most confident commentators. Gold surged to extraordinary levels and became one of the standout performers of the year. Very few predicted the scale and speed of this move. Bitcoin, on the other hand, failed to meet the lofty expectations many investors had set for it after a strong lead-in to the year. It did not collapse, but it underperformed relative to the optimism that surrounded it. AI-related equities, which dominated the narrative in the first half of the year, experienced a wobble late in the year as valuations and expectations finally met resistance. Bond markets around the world offered their own set of twists, with yields shifting sharply as traders tried to interpret, and continually re-interpret, macroeconomic signals.
When you bring these stories together, the central lesson of the year becomes clear. Relying on forecasts, predictions, narratives, or short-term macro opinions is a poor foundation for investment decisions. Markets are efficient in processing new information. Human beings are not. That is why forecasts change so rapidly and why their accuracy is so inconsistent. Yet headlines and bold predictions attract far more attention than the quiet, disciplined work of long-term planning. The idea of allocating for the long haul and avoiding short-term noise does not generate clicks on Bloomberg, but it does generate better outcomes for investors.
Readers familiar with Brigantia’s principles will know that we do not build financial plans around predictions. We build them around evidence, resilience, and a deep understanding of long-term market behaviour. This year has reinforced why that approach matters. There is always something new to worry about and always something unexpected to appreciate. None of this should alter the course of a well-constructed plan.
If 2025 taught investors anything, it is that reacting to noise is costly, and trying to guess the next move in markets is an exercise in frustration. The year has been full of twists and surprises, yet when you zoom out the broader picture has been entirely consistent with long-term historical experience. Diversified portfolios did their job. Rebalancing worked. Sensible planning helped clients stay on course.
Next week, we will turn our attention to 2026 and explore how investors can prepare for the year ahead. For now, it is enough to say that despite the noise, the unexpected events, and the confident-sounding forecasts that failed to materialise, disciplined long-term investing continued to do exactly what it was designed to do.
When you bring these stories together, the central lesson of the year becomes clear. Relying on forecasts, predictions, narratives, or short-term macro opinions is a poor foundation for investment decisions. Markets are efficient in processing new information. Human beings are not. That is why forecasts change so rapidly and why their accuracy is so inconsistent. Yet headlines and bold predictions attract far more attention than the quiet, disciplined work of long-term planning. The idea of allocating for the long haul and avoiding short-term noise does not generate clicks on Bloomberg, but it does generate better outcomes for investors.
Readers familiar with Brigantia’s principles will know that we do not build financial plans around predictions. We build them around evidence, resilience, and a deep understanding of long-term market behaviour. This year has reinforced why that approach matters. There is always something new to worry about and always something unexpected to appreciate. None of this should alter the course of a well-constructed plan.
If 2025 taught investors anything, it is that reacting to noise is costly, and trying to guess the next move in markets is an exercise in frustration. The year has been full of twists and surprises, yet when you zoom out the broader picture has been entirely consistent with long-term historical experience. Diversified portfolios did their job. Rebalancing worked. Sensible planning helped clients stay on course.
Next week, we will turn our attention to 2026 and explore how investors can prepare for the year ahead. For now, it is enough to say that despite the noise, the unexpected events, and the confident-sounding forecasts that failed to materialise, disciplined long-term investing continued to do exactly what it was designed to do.
